The United States' Strategic Choice
The United States is like an aging Undisputed Champion of heavy weight boxing, sensing his own physical deterioration and decline in fan support, prize money, and endorsement funds. The boxer and his entourage are in a race against time to clear out by all means, overt or covert, the true contenders, so he can maintain dominance for just a few more years to feed his expensive spending habits. He would not hesitate even if it involves undermining all the boxing sanctioning bodies. To remain as the last Undisputed Champion is the singular objective, as to be unique is to be valuable, just like Banksy’s shredded “Girl with Balloon”.
While the US, this aging boxer, has a choice of becoming one of the few superpowers in a multipolar world, it has elected not to follow that route. This is because preserving the US Dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency of choice has already morphed into its single overarching objective. Perhaps not a conscious choice with a decision date attached, but via years of creepage and drift in its domestic struggles. Its share of the global reserve is currently around 60% and even a few percentage points drop would lead to disastrous consequences in the US way of life.
The US federal budget is made up of mandatory expenditures, such as Social Security (retirement program), and discretionary expenditures, such as military spending. The mandatory expenditures as a percentage of GDP have grown from less than 50% in the early 90s to 65% or so today due to an aging population and an unregulated increase in healthcare costs. Because of political polarization and more politicians fighting over a shrinking discretionary portion of the budget, federal spending plans rarely pass in time. In order to satisfy the many real and phantom obligations, debt ceilings are raised perennially. A weakening dollar would just be like a tropical monsoon passing over a leaking tin roof.
Hence while not a single soldier is involved in Ukraine, the US is absolutely fighting for its way of life. Fighting for the dollar indirectly. It is moving heaven and earth to take down Russia, recognizing that this may well be the last chance it has in weakening it. The US most probably would have preferred to bring down China instead, but given the resources and economic pain involved, it can only deal with Russia and China in succession. The choice was in a way made for them when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Unfortunately, the most negative consequence of the war which the US did not foresee is the rise of the commodity-tied Russian Ruble, and likely arrival of the petrol Chinese RMB. It therefore has to double down its support of Ukraine, at the expense of the EU and Euro which is of low priority to the US anyway, and bet that Russia cracks first.
The aging boxer should consider another approach in preserving his legacy. Perhaps starting a business with the up-and-coming Chinese boxer, perhaps go into exhibition wrestling matches with the Russian boxer. Perhaps forming a union for all the poorly treated young boxers around the world. Perhaps sharing the glory and purse. Sadly, the only skill he has is brute force and total dominance. Just like the famous scorpion’s final words to the frog while sinking together: “I am sorry, but I couldn't resist the urge. It's in my nature.”